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Modeling future land cover and water quality change in Minneapolis,MN, USA to support drinking water source protection decisions
Authors:Sean A. Woznicki  George Kraynick  James Wickham  Maliha Nash  Terry Sohl
Affiliation:1. Center for Public Health and Assessment, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA;2. City of Minneapolis Department of Public Works, Division of Water Treatment and Distribution Services, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Contribution: ​Investigation, Methodology;3. Center for Public Health and Assessment, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Newport, Oregon, USA

Contribution: Formal analysis, Methodology;4. Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, United States Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Contribution: Data curation, Methodology, Writing - review & editing

Abstract:Continued alteration of the nitrogen cycle exposes receiving waters to elevated nitrogen concentrations and forces drinking water treatment services to plan for such increases in the future. We developed four 2011–2050 land cover change scenarios and modeled the impact of projected land cover change on influent water quality to support long-term planning for the Minneapolis Water Treatment Distribution Service (MWTDS) using Soil Water and Assessment Tool. Projected land cover changes based on relatively unconstrained economic growth led to substantial increases in total nitrogen (TN) loads and modest increases in total phosphorus (TP) loads in spring. Changes in sediment, TN, and TP under two “constrained” growth scenarios were near zero or declined modestly. Longitudinal analysis suggested that the extant vegetation along the Mississippi River corridor upstream of the MWTDS may be a sediment (and phosphorus) trap. Autoregressive analysis of current (2008–2017) chemical treatment application rates (mass per water volume processed) and extant (2001–2011) land cover change revealed that statistically significant increases in chemical treatment rates were temporally congruent with urbanization and conversion of pasture to cropland. Using the current trend in chemical treatment application rates and their inferred relationship to extant land cover change as a bellwether, the unconstrained growth scenarios suggest that future land cover may present challenges to the production of potable water for MWTDS.
Keywords:drinking water  land cover change  SWAT  FORE-SCE  source water protection
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