基于PLUS-InVEST模型的哈尔滨市土地利用及生境质量预测

分析城市土地利用与生境质量时空演变,能够揭示土地利用和生境质量的关联性,有助于城市土地政策合理决策和生态环境高质量发展.研究基于土地利用转移矩阵和IM模型分析哈尔滨市2000~2020年土地利用的变化,并结合PLUS模型进行各用地类型扩张因子的驱动探究以及2030年自然发展情景、生态保护情景、耕地保护情景和城镇发展情景下的土地利用预测,最后利用InVEST模型完成生境质量分析.结果表明：①哈尔滨市土地利用类型以耕地、林地和草地为主,2000~2020年期间,草地、耕地、林地和人造地表转入面积较多,土地利用强度变化倾向性特征明显；水体、裸地和湿地类型的转入较少,多呈现抑制性特征. ②高程是影响草地、耕地、林地、裸地、湿地和水体扩张的主要因子；影响人造地表扩张的主要因子是社会经济因素. ③模拟哈尔滨市2030年4种情景下各土地利用类型面积,其中林地面积均增加,草地面积均减少,湿地、水体和裸地面积变化均不显著；除生态保护情景外,人造地表面积均增加,耕地面积均减少. ④2000~2020年间,哈尔滨市生境质量整体提高. ⑤2030年哈尔滨市4种情景下生境质量空间格局演变规律整体保持一致,生境质量均呈现变好趋势,其中生态保护情景下低、中等生境质量面积减少,而较高、高生境质量面积有所增加,生境质量提升相对明显.研究结果可为哈尔滨市生态文明发展以及城市规划建设提供一定的科学依据及思路.

Prediction of Land Use and Habitat Quality in Harbin City Based on the PLUS- InVEST Model

Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of urban land use and habitat quality can reveal the correlation between land use and habitat quality, aiding in rational urban land policies and high-quality ecological environment development. This study was based on land use transition matrices and an Intensity-Migration （IM） model to analyze the changes in land use in Harbin from 2000 to 2020. It combined the PLUS model to explore the driving factors of land use expansion for various land types and predicted land use scenarios for 2030 under natural development, ecological protection, farmland protection, and urban development scenarios. Finally, the InVEST model was used to complete the habitat quality analysis. The results indicated： ① The dominant land use types in Harbin were cropland, forest land, and grassland. From 2000 to 2020, there was a significant tendency of conversion into grassland, cropland, forest land, and artificial surfaces, with noticeable changes in land use intensity. Water bodies, bare land, and wetland types showed less conversion and tended to be restrictive. ② Elevation was the primary factor influencing the expansion of grassland, cropland, forest land, bare land, wetland, and water bodies. Socioeconomic factors were the main factor affecting the expansion of artificial surfaces. ③ Simulation of land use types in Harbin for 2030 under the four scenarios showed an increase in forest land area and a decrease in grassland area, with insignificant changes in wetland, water bodies, and bare land areas. Except for in the ecological protection scenario, the area of artificial surfaces increased, whereas cropland decreased. ④ Overall, habitat quality in Harbin improved from 2000 to 2020. ⑤ In 2030, the spatial pattern of habitat quality in Harbin remained consistent across all scenarios, showing an overall improvement in habitat quality. Under the ecological protection scenario, areas with low and medium habitat quality decreased, whereas areas with higher habitat quality increased, indicating a relatively significant improvement in habitat quality. The research results provide a scientific basis and insights for the development of ecological civilization and urban planning and construction in Harbin.