基于双指标的安康水库防洪预报调度规则研究

随着水文预报水平的提高，考虑预报信息的防洪预报调度方式日益受到重视。对安康水库实施防洪预报调度的可行性进行了分析，采用“逐级调节法”反复试算修正，确定了以“预报累积净雨量”为主判断指标、“库水位”为辅助指标的安康水库双指标防洪预报调度规则，并对设计洪水及实际洪水进行了调节，调节结果与常规调度比较，水库水位提前降低至汛限水位以下，增加了防洪库容，减小了洪峰段下泄流量，降低了水库最高水位，提高了防洪能力。同时选择不同起调水位，对设计洪水及实际洪水进行调节, 确定合适起调水位，并分析了预报调度和常规调度的风险。结果显示：起调水位抬升，防洪预报调度的风险有所增加，但仍小于常规调度风险，为更好的实现洪水资源的有效利用，建议预报调度起调水位定为3260 m

RESEARCH ON FLOOD FORECAST OPERATION SCHEME WITH DOUBLE INDICATORS FOR ANKANG RESERVOIR

With the improvement of rainfall forecasting level，reservoir forecast operation on rainfall has drawn more and more attention.In this paper,through analyzing the feasibility of flood control operation for Ankang reservoir and taking “total forecast information of cumulative net rain” as main indicator and “reservoir water level” as auxiliary indicator,we set reservoir forecast operation rule with double indicators for Ankang reservoir by “gradually adjusting method”,then regulated flood design and actual flood. Results show that water level of reservoir fell in advance below the flood control level,the capacity of the flood control increased,discharge in the peak stage reduced and the highest level in forecast operation was lower than that in normal operation,which improved the flood control ability.At the same time,we selected different initial water level to regulate flood design and actual flood,and chose the more appropriate one and analyzed the risk in forecast and normal operation.Results show that initial water level increased,the risk of forecast also increased but under the normal operation.Thus,we proposed that flood control level could be set at 326 m to realize floodwater resources utilization