系统故障演化过程不连续现象的原因及消除方法研究*

为研究系统故障演化过程中，通过原因事件得到的结果事件发生可能性与直接试验得到的结果事件发生可能性不同的问题，定义系统故障演化过程的不连续现象，研究不连续现象出现的原因和消除方法。根据不连续现象的程度将原因分为3层，第1层是基本的原因事件、结果事件或传递的概率错误造成的不连续；第2层是因素对应错误造成的概率错误；第3层是演化结构不清造成的错误。针对这些错误提出消除方法，基本方法包括试验法、结构分析法和逻辑推理法；第2层次使用空间故障树和因素空间等方法；第3层使用三值逻辑等方法。研究结果表明:导致不连续的原因是演化过程的结构性问题，消除的方法应根据实际情况进行选择和变化。

Research on causes and elimination methods of discontinuity phenomenon in system fault evolution process

To study the problem that the probability of the result event obtained by the cause event is different from that obtained by the direct experiment in the system fault evolution process,the discontinuous phenomenon of system fault evolution process was defined,and the causes and elimination methods of the discontinuous phenomenon were studied.According to the degree of discontinuity,the causes were divided into three levels.The first level was the discontinuity caused by the probability error of basic cause event,result event or transfer,the second level was the probability error caused by the factor corresponding error,and the third level was the error caused by the unclear evolution structure.The elimination methods for these errors were proposed,the basic methods included the experiment method,structural analysis method and logical reasoning method,the second level used the space fault tree,factor space and other methods,and the third level used the ternary logic,et al.The results showed that the cause of discontinuity was the structural problems of the evolution process,and the elimination methods should be selected and changed according to the actual situation.