基于贝叶斯网络的消防协同治理影响因素研究

为有效提升消防安全协同治理的效能，在识别和量化政府部门、企业和公民社会消防协同治理的影响因素的基础上，分别构建政府部门、企业和公民社会影响因素的贝叶斯网络模型，辨识影响实现高效消防协同治理的关键因素。研究结果表明：部门的权力与利益、有效领导和组织激励3个因素对政府消防协同治理影响最为显著；交流沟通和参与渠道分别是影响企业和公民社会的关键因素，并且基于全局贝叶斯网络模型的敏感性分析可知，政府部门是整体消防协同治理的核心，调节相关部门的权力与利益和具备有效领导的能力能有效提高政府消防协同治理水平，明显改善整体消防协同治理效能。

Study on influencing factors of collaborative governance of fire protection based on Bayesian network

In order to effectively enhance the effectiveness in the collaborative governance of fire protection safety,on the basis of the identification and quantification on the influencing factors of collaborative governance of fire protection among government departments,enterprises and civil society,the Bayesian network models on the influencing factors of government departments,enterprises and civil society were constructed respectively,and the key factors affecting the efficient collaborative governance of fire protection were identified.The results showed that three factors of departmental power and interests,effective leadership and organizational motivation had the most significant influence on the collaborative governance of fire protection in government.The communication and participation channels were the key factors influencing the enterprises and civil society,respectively.Through the sensitivity analysis based on the global Bayesian network model,it could be concluded that the government departments were the core of overall collaborative governance of fire protection,and regulating the power and interests of relevant departments and owning the ability of effective leadership could effectively improve the government’s collaborative governance level of fire protection,and obviously improve the overall efficiency of the collaborative governance of fire protection.