基于海冰热力学原理的营口海域冰厚演变规律及工程应用

本文依据营口气象站1951年以来的气象观测数据，结合热力学模式HIGHTSI，重现了1951－2018年冬季（67 a）海冰的生长与融化过程。对计算结果进行分析，多年平均冰厚在2月初较为对称，多年最大冰厚约为0.24 cm。自1951年以来最大海冰厚度与平均海冰厚度的减小速率分别为0.255 cm/a和0.076 cm/a，海冰厚度随时间的演变规律为:海冰厚度越大，发生概率最大值对应的年份越早，即大于40 cm海冰厚度的最大概率发生于20世纪50年代，小于10 cm海冰厚度的最大概率发生于20世纪90年代。1951－2018年，每10年的代际海冰厚度分布概率分析结果表明，20世纪70年代为持续的常冰年冰情，20世纪90年代为持续的轻冰年，各海冰厚度的概率呈连续减小趋势；其余代际年份的冰情呈现轻冰年与重冰年的波动变化，各海冰厚度的概率呈减小-增大-减小的规律。本文定量描述了气候变化对营口冰情的影响，为海洋工程设计的海冰参数选取奠定了数据基础。

The evolution law and engineering application of ice thickness in Yingkou sea area based on the thermodynamic of sea ice

Based on the meteorological observation data of Yingkou Meteorological Station since 1951, and combined with the thermodynamic model HIGHTSI, this paper reproduces the ice thick growth and melt process from 1951 to 2018. After analyzing the calculation results, the multi-decadal mean ice thickness showed a quite symmetrical distribution with a multi-decadal maximum ice thickness of about 0.24 cm in the beginning of February. The multi-decadal ice-mass balance revealed decreasing trends of the maximum and average ice thickness of 2.55 cm/decade and 0.76 cm/decade, respectively. Since 1951, the evolution of sea ice thickness has shown the law that the larger the ice thickness, the earlier the probability of the maximum value occurring. The maximum probability of ice thickness greater than 40 cm occurred in 1950s, the maximum probability of ice thickness of 20 cmto 40 cm occurred in 1960s, the maximum probability of ice thickness of 10 cm to 20 cm occurred in 1970s, and the maximum probability of ice thickness of less than 10 cm occurred in 1990s. The probability of distribution of ice thickness in the ten-year season since 1951 is given, and the severity of ice conditions within ten years shows the fluctuation change between light ice years and heavy ice years, and the probability of each ice thickness range shows the law of first increasing and then decreasing. The 1990s showed a continuous light ice year, and the ice thickness range showed a continuous decreasing trend. This paper quantitatively describes the impact of climate change on Yingkou ice conditions, and lays a data foundation for the selection of sea ice parameters for marine engineering design.