多因素影响下系统故障预防的多方案比选方法研究

为研究多因素影响下系统遭遇危险事件前预防方案的选优，在集对分析和空间故障树基础上提出比选方法。首先，论述集对分析与空间故障树理论结合的可行性；其次，研究系统故障预防的多因素多方案比选方法和步骤；最后，通过实例进行分析。研究结果表明：停运方案没有因素分量系数影响，其损失是停运带来的经济损失；无措施方案的系统常分量系数最小，因素分量系数最大；采取措施方案中，当常分量系数相差不大时，因素分量系数积最小者为最优方案。使用赵森烽-克勤概率表示危险事件的发生特征是可行的；常分量系数代表方案对系统故障预防效用的可靠性，因素分量系数代表该可靠性的稳定性；结合常分量系数和因素分量系数即可确定最优方案。该方法适合于故障发生对因素变化敏感的系统。

Research on multi-scheme comparison and selection method of system fault prevention under influence of multiple factors

To study the optimization selection of prevention schemes before the system encounters dangerous events under the influence of multiple factors,a comparison and selection method was proposed based on set pair analysis and space fault tree.Firstly,the feasibility of combining the set pair analysis with the space fault tree theory was discussed.Secondly,the method and steps of multiple factors and multi-scheme comparison and selection for system fault prevention were studied.Finally,an example was analyzed.The results showed that the stop working scheme had no influence of factor component coefficient,and its loss was the economic loss caused by stop working.The constant component coefficient of the system without measure scheme was the smallest,and the factor component coefficient was the largest.In the adopting measure scheme,when the constant component coefficient difference was small,the one with the smallest factor component coefficient product was the optimal scheme.Therefore,it was feasible to use Zhao Linfeng and Keqin probability to represent the occurrence characteristics of dangerous events.The constant component coefficient represented the reliability of the scheme to the system fault prevention effectiveness,and the factor component coefficient represented the stability of the reliability.The optimal scheme could be determined by combining the constant component coefficient and the factor component coefficient.The method is suitable for the system whose fault is sensitive to the change of factors.