考虑洪涝灾害风险的城市应急避难场所选址研究*

为解决洪涝灾害下城市应急避难场所选址优化问题，将洪涝灾害风险评估与选址模型相结合。首先，运用灰色模糊综合评价法对洪涝灾害风险进行评价，得到洪涝灾害风险综合指数。然后，将综合指数归一化处理后作为权重引入疏散距离最小化和覆盖人口最大化的目标函数，结合最小化避难所数量，以最大服务范围、容量作为约束，构建引入洪涝灾害综合风险权重的多目标应急避难场所选址优化模型，并采用遗传算法对模型进行求解。最后，以武汉市作为实证研究对象验证模型的科学性和有效性。研究结果表明:在考虑洪涝灾害风险的情况下，应急避难场所选址方案可在接近最优解的情况下达到最优。研究结果可为城市防洪应急避难场所布局优化提供参考。

Study on site selection of urban emergency shelters consider risk of flood disaster

In order to solve the problem in the site selection optimization of urban emergency shelters under the flood disasters,the risk assessment of flood disaster was combined with the site selection model.Firstly,the flood disaster risk was evaluated by using the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and the comprehensive index of flood disaster risk was obtained.Secondly,the normalized comprehensive index was introduced as the weight into the objective function of minimizing the evacuation distance and maximizing the covering population,and combined with the minimized number of shelters and taking the maximum service range and capacity as constraints,a multi-objective site location optimization model of emergency shelters introducing into the comprehensive risk weight of flood disaster was constructed,and the genetic algorithm was used to solve the model.Finally,Wuhan city was taken as an empirical research object to verify the scientificity and effectiveness of the model.The results showed that when considering the risk of flood disaster,the site selection scheme of emergency shelters could reach the optimal condition near the optimal solution.This study can provide reference for the layout optimization of urban emergency shelters for flood control.