终端区飞行冲突事件情景演变网络构建研究 *

为了控制终端区飞行冲突的风险，基于复杂网络，将飞行冲突的情景演变过程转化为复杂网络进行分析计算。分析侧向交叉跑道机场的主要安全风险，构建包含527个节点与2 644条边的终端区飞行冲突情景演化复杂网络模型；采用无权有向网络中的节点度、度中心性、介数中心性、聚类系数等进行风险分析；采用Dijkstra算法，确定影响飞行冲突的关键节点。研究结果表明:网络平均度为5.017，平均路径长度为3.273和网络直径为9，表现出明显的小世界网络特征；网络的聚类系数为0.331，网络聚集程度偏低而演化性较强；飞行冲突控制的关键节点主要为“监视雷达”、“潜在火灾或烟雾”、“航迹不稳定”和“紧急定位发射器信号”等设备故障有关节点；“中止进近”、“避让”、“冲突”、“复飞”和“重新进近”等为导致飞行冲突关键节点，最短路径“起飞-重新进近”的发生概率最大为3.39×10-7。利用民航安全信息实现飞行冲突情景演化过程的可视化，可为此类事件的预防和解脱提供理论方法，对保障民航运行安全具有现实意义。

Research on scenario evolution network construction of flight conflict incident in terminal area

To control the risk of flight conflict in the terminal area,based on the complex network,the scenario evolution process of flight conflict was transformed into the complex network for analysis and calculation.Firstly,the main safety risk of the lateral cross runway airport was analyzed,and a complex network model of scenario evolution for the flight conflict in the terminal area was constructed,which included 527 nodes and 2644 edges.Secondly,the risk analysis was carried out by using the nodes degree,the degree centrality,the betweenness centrality and the clustering coefficients in the unweighted and directed network.Finally,the key nodes influencing the flight conflict were determined by using the Dijkstra algorithm.The results showed that the network average degree was 5.017,the average path length was 3.273,and the network diameter was 9,which presented the obvious characteristics of small-world network.The clustering coefficient of network was 0.331,the network aggregation degree was relatively low,while the evolvability was stronger.The key nodes of flight conflict control were mainly those related to equipment failure,including “surveillance radar”,“potential fire or smoke”,“track instability” and “emergency positioning transmitter signal”.The key nodes leading to the flight conflict were the “abort approach”,“avoid”,“conflict”,“go-around” and “reapproach”,and the maximum occurrence probability of the shortest paths named “take off-reapproach” was 3.391 0-7.It showed that using the civil aviation safety information to realize the visualization of the scenario evolution process of flight conflict can provide a theoretical method for the prevention and relief of such incidents,and it has practical significance for guarding the safety operation of civil aviation.