一种改进的疏散节点踩踏风险评估算法*

为解决四变量算法中存在的计算精度不高和数值不连续问题，基于踩踏事故概率设计随坡度单调递增的倾斜度函数、以人流股数为计算单位的宽度系数函数以及以节点直接承受疏散人流为基础的汇集度函数，并据此构建点型节点、线型节点和面型节点的踩踏风险评估算法。研究结果表明:改进算法能够有效避免四变量算法存在的问题，在算法稳定性、参数敏感性和无效参数处理等方面显著优于当前其他算法。研究结果为提升算法稳定性和敏感性奠定基础。

An improved algorithm for stampede risk assessment of evacuation nodes

In order to solve the problems of low calculation accuracy and numerical discontinuity in the four variable algorithm,based on the probability of stampede accident,an inclination degree function that increased monotonically with slope,a width coefficient function with the number of pedestrian flow strands as the calculation unit,and a convergence function based on the evacuation pedestrian flow of node directly bearing were designed.On this basis,the stampede risk assessment algorithms of point nodes,linear nodes and face nodes were constructed.The results showed that the improved algorithm could effectively avoid the problems of four variable algorithm,and was significantly better than other current algorithms in the aspects of algorithm stability,parameter sensitivity and invalid parameter processing.The research results lay a foundation for improving the stability and sensitivity of the Algorithm.