中国安全生产政策变迁及其内在逻辑——基于间断均衡模型的实证分析*

为全面发挥安全生产政策对推进安全生产治理体系与治理能力现代化的保障作用，基于间断均衡模型审视改革开放以来我国安全生产政策变迁过程，并提出将其划分为3个均衡期和2个间断期。研究结果表明:在政策目标的转换下，我国安全生产政策变迁先后历经“生产安全”、“安全发展”与“总体安全”3个阶段的深刻调整。决策主体注意力分配、焦点事件持续冲击与地方政府创新供给利用改变政策场域而影响安全生产政策变迁，分别呈现“原动力”、“驱动力”与“拉动力”的作用机制，具有典型的中国情境。研究结果可为廓清中国安全生产政策变迁机制提供理论思考。

Change of work safety policy in China and their internal logic:Empirical analysis based on discontinuous equilibrium model

To fully play the guarantee role of work safety policy in promoting the modernization of work safety governance system and governance capacity,the change process of work safety policy in China since the reform and opening up was examined based on the discontinuous equilibrium model,and it was divided into three equilibrium periods and two discontinuous periods.The results showed that under the transition of policy objective,the change of work safety policy in China had successively undergone the profound adjustment of three stages including “safety in production”,“safety development” and “overall safety”.The distribution of decision-making subject’s attention,the continuous impact of focal events and the utilization of local government’s innovative supply changed the policy field and affected the change of work safety policy,which respectively presented the action mechanism of “prime motive force”,“driving force” and “pulling force”,with a typical Chinese situation.The research provides a theoretical consideration to clarify the change mechanism of work safety policy in China.