An analysis of the likely success of policy actions under uncertainty: Recovery from acidification across Great Britain |
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| Institution: | 1. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, LA1 4YQ, United Kingdom;2. School of Geography, University of Nottingham,University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom;3. rdscientific, Newbury, Berkshire, RG14 6LH, United Kingdom;1. Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, China;2. Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK;1. Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, China;2. Advanced Materials Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK;1. Key Laboratory for Liquid Structure and Heredity of Materials, Ministry of Education, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China;2. Institute of Microstructure and Property of Advanced Materials, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;3. Center of Electron Microscopy and State Key Laboratory of Silicon Materials, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;4. National Center for Materials Service Safety, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;5. State Key Laboratory for Advanced Metals and Materials, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;1. Department of Public Administration, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States;2. Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, United States;3. The Nature Conservancy, North Carolina Chapter, Durham, NC 27701, United States;4. Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX 78701, United States |
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| Abstract: | In the context of wider debates about the role of uncertainty in environmental science and the development of environmental policy, we use a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimate (GLUE) approach to address the uncertainty in both acid deposition model predictions and in the sensitivity of the soils to assess the likely success of policy actions to reduce acid deposition damage across Great Britain. A subset of 11, 699 acid deposition model runs that adequately represented observed deposition data were used to provide acid deposition distributions for 2005 and 2020, following a substantial reduction in SO2 and NOx emissions. Uncertain critical loads data for soils were then combined with these deposition data to derive estimates of the accumulated exceedance (AE) of critical loads for 2005 and 2020. For the more sensitive soils, the differences in accumulated exceedance between 2005 and 2020 were such that we could be sure that they were significant and a meaningful environmental improvement would result. For the least sensitive soils, critical loads were largely met by 2020, hence uncertainties in the differences in accumulated exceedance were of little policy relevance. Our approach of combining estimates of uncertainty in both a pollution model and an effects model, shows that even taking these combined uncertainties into account, policy-makers can be sure that the substantial planned reduction in acidic emissions will reduce critical loads exceedances. The use of accumulated exceedance as a relative measure of environmental protection provides additional information to policy makers in tackling this ‘wicked problem’. |
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| Keywords: | HARM GLUE Uncertainty Critical loads Soil acidification |
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