Using qualitative models to define sustainable management for the commons in data poor conditions |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;3. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Regional Modern Agriculture & Environmental Protection, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223001, China;1. Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management, Department of Economics, Kolejni 4, Brno 612 00, Czech Republic;2. Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management, Department of Informatics, Kolejni 4, Brno 612 00, Czech Republic;1. Beirut Arab University-Tripoli Campus, Corniche El Meena, next to the Olympic Stadium, Tripoli, Lebanon;2. LaSIE, University of La Rochelle, Avenue Michel Crépeau, Pôle Sciences et Technologies, 17000 La Rochelle, France;1. National Key Laboratory of Shale Oil/Gas Enrichment Mechanism and Effective Development, China;2. National Energy R & D Center of Shale Oil, China;3. Sinopec Key Laboratory of Shale Oil/Gas Exploration and Production Technology, China;4. Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, China;5. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA |
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| Abstract: | Nearly 50 years after Hardin’s “tragedy of the commons” we have not yet found predictive tools to guide us towards sustainable management of common-pool resources (CPR). We often have a good understanding of the qualitative relationships between the principal actors in socioecological systems (SESs), but classical quantitative approaches require a tremendous amount of data to understand the drivers of SESs sustainability. Here we show that qualitative modelling approaches can provide important governance insights for SESs that are understood but not quantified.We used Loop Analysis to test the outcomes of different management regimes on a simple nature-based tourism SES described by economic, social and environmental variables. We tested the sustainability of different management scenarios on this system and we identified the necessary conditions to achieve it.We found that management regimes where property rights and responsibilities are shared between different stakeholders are more likely to be successful. However, the system is generally highly unstable and it is important to tune each strategy to each particular situation.The conditions for sustainability found across the different systems tested were: a low reinvestment rate of tourist revenues into new infrastructures and a low growth rate of the environment. Management strategies based on maximum sustainable yield, which keep the environment far from its carrying capacity, have less chance to be sustainable.Qualitative models of SESs are powerful diagnostic tools; they can help identifying variables that play an important role in determining socioecological sustainability in data-poor circumstances and guide the design of efficient data collection programmes. Our results highlight the importance of careful planning when designing management strategies for nature-based tourism. The application of one-size-fits-all solutions to every situation is likely to lead to the failure of the commons; however tourism-based SESs can be sustainable if management strategies are tuned to each particular case. |
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| Keywords: | Common-pool resources Loop analysis Nature-based tourism Press-pulse dynamics Predictive conservation Sustainable development |
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