大连长兴岛近岸海域资源环境承载能力研究

海洋资源环境承载能力研究是解决经济发展与海洋资源环境保护之间矛盾的关键。本研究引入边际报酬递减理论和短板理论，从广义的社会发展需求和狭义的资源环境底线约束两方面来构建海洋资源环境承载能力评价理论框架和方法体系，并以大连长兴岛近岸海域为研究区开展实证研究。基于边际报酬递减理论，以资源环境开发的社会边际报酬为零作为资源环境承载能力阈值，开展广义的海洋资源环境承载能力评价；基于短板理论，以海域空间资源、海洋生态环境和无居民海岛资源环境三项要素作为基础指标，开展狭义的海洋资源环境承载能力评价；基于上述两方面的评价结果，开展综合承载能力评价。研究结果表明，2016年大连长兴岛近岸海域资源环境承载能力处于超载状态。短期来看，长兴岛近岸海域填海已超过最佳规模，因此对社会经济发展的促进作用较小。此外，人类开发利用活动已导致长兴岛近岸海域出现自然岸线严重丧失、海域过度开发和渔业资源难以持续等问题。

Research on marine resources and environment carrying capacity in the coastal waters of Changxing island in Dalian

The research on the marine resources and environment carrying capacity is the key to solve the contradiction between economic development and marine resources and environment protection. Based on the theory of diminishing marginal returns and short board, this study firstly constructed the theoretical framework and methodology system of marine resources and environment carrying capacity evaluation in two aspects, namely, the society development demand in a broad sense and the resources and environment constraint in a narrow sense. And then, we took the coastal waters of Changxing island in Dalian as the case study. The assessment of marine resources and environment carrying capacity in a broad sense was initiated based on the theory of diminishing marginal returns, taking zero marginal income of resources and environment development as the evaluation threshold. Meanwhile, the assessment of marine resources and environment carrying capacity in a narrow sense was carried out based on the short board theory, with three basic indicators, that were, sea space resources, marine ecological environment and uninhabited island resources and environment. Finally, the comprehensive carrying capacity was evaluated according to the above results. The results showed that the carrying capacity of Changxing island was overloaded in 2016. Based on the short-term, the reclamation of Changxing island had exceeded the optimal scale, so it had little promoting effect on social economic development. In addition, human's development and utilization activities of sea resources had led to serious loss of natural coastline, excessive development of sea area and unsustainable fishery resources.