基于CLUE-S模型的重庆市渝北区土地利用变化动态模拟

以重庆市渝北区为研究区域,运用CLUE-S模型,结合Logistic回归分析,分别以2007年和2009年为基期,对渝北区2013年土地利用情况进行模拟研究,在此基础上构建了渝北区2013~2020年3种不同情景的土地利用变化模式,模拟了3种情景模式下渝北区在2020年的土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明:(1)两期模拟的正确率分别达到了92.26%和94%,Kappa系数值分别为90.32%和92.5%,均取得了较好的模拟效果,说明CLUE-S模型适用于渝北区的土地利用空间格局变化的模拟研究,具有较好的模拟区域土地利用时空变化的能力;(2)地形、国道、省道、高速公路等主要道路、河流、城镇和村庄是影响渝北区土地利用空间格局变化的重要驱动因素;(3)在3种情景模式中,主要的用地格局变化均发生在两江新区,区内建设用地总体呈现向东北部扩张的趋势,表明区域经济社会发展政策对用地类型的变化具有较大的影响;(4)从促进城乡统筹和谐发展、土地节约集约利用、生态环境显著改善和保护耕地的区域发展目标而言,情景模式2为较为合理的发展模式。研究结果可为决策部门在土地可持续利用和土地管理方面提供参考依据。

DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF LAND USE CHANGE IN YUBEI DISTRICT OF CHONGQING BASED ON CLUE-S MODEL

In this paper, taking the Yubei District of Chongqing as the study area, based on CLUE-S model and Binary Logistic stepwise regression analysis, using the remote sensing land use historical imageries of 2007 and 2009 of Yubei District,and the key forces driving land use change and controlling land use pattern in Yubei District, land use spatial distribution pattern in 2013 of Yubei District was simulated. Then, the simulated results of the two temporal scale were compared with the real land use map of 2013 to validate the precision of the simulation. And on this basis, for a better understanding of the future land use changes in Yubei District, three different scenarios of land use change for further 7 years (from 2013 to 2020) of Yubei District were constructed, and three different land use spatial distribution patterns in 2020 of Yubei District were predicted by using the CLUE-S model. The results showed that using CLUE-S model, at 100m spatial resolution level, the simulation accuracy of the two temporal scale reached respectively 92.26% and 94%, Kappa indexes were 90.32% and 92.5% respectively, which suggesting that the CLUE-S model applies to simulate temporal and spatial changes in land use from 2007 to 2009 and from 2009 to 2013 of Yubei District.This model which has the capability of rnodeling changes in quantity and location sirnultaneously, has a good understanding of the futher land use change of Yubei District and applies to predict the land use spatio-temporal change of Yubei District. And the key driving factors which are selected from biophysical and socioeconomic factors including topography, national roads, province roads, highways, rivers, urban, town and rural residential areas play important roles in driving the land use spatial distribution change of Yubei District. The results of scenarios analysis demonstrate that in 2020 the land use change mainly occured in Chongqing Liang Jiang New Area, including Yufengshan town, Shuangfengqiao subdistrict, Lianglu subdistrict, Wangjia subdistrict and Gulu town, which suggesting that the regional social and economic development policy has an important influence on land use change. In the scenario analysis, the urban and built-up land was significantly increased under all three different scenarios, that is scenario Ⅰ > scenario Ⅱ > scenario Ⅲ. Whereas there was obvious difference in the cultivated land and forest land change under three different scenarios. The cultivated land was decreasing under all three different scenarios, that is scenario Ⅲ > scenario Ⅰ > scenario Ⅱ. And in scenario Ⅰ, the forest land was decreasing, whereas in scenario Ⅱand Ⅲ, the forest land was increasing. So during the process of social economy development in Yubei District, the scenario Ⅱ is much more reasonable for the goal of urban and rural harmonious development, economical and intensive use of land, ecological environment improvement and cultivated land protection. The study conclusions will provide data reference and basic information of decision support for Yubei District future land use planning, management and policy-making.