2003～2011年四川省各市(州)农业水足迹时空变化与驱动力研究

运用水足迹理论和计算方法,系统分析了四川省各市(州)2003~2011年农业水足迹的时空动态变化趋势与农业水资源利用效益,并采用灰色关联度法分析其驱动力因素。研究结果表明:(1)四川省各市(州)农业水足迹和人均农业水足迹均呈增加的趋势变化,成都市、南充市、达州市农业水足迹较大,2011年农业水足迹分别达82.44×108,45.56×108,41.02×108 m3。人均农业水足迹各市(州)差距不大,其中成都市和攀枝花市略高。(2)农业水资源利用效益方面显示:四川省各市(州)农业水足迹净贸易量均为正值,属于农业水资源净输出地。2006、2009、2010和2011年农业水资源匮乏度较高,成都市水资源紧缺度最高,2005~2010年均在200%以上。(3)驱动因素方面显示:耕地复种指数和人口总数是农业水足迹变化的关键驱动因素,关联度分别是0.643 3和0.632 5。建议提高水资源利用效益,适当控制高耗水农产品生产规模,合理配置水资源,实现空间和季节用水的协调性。

AGRICULTURAL WATER FOOTPRINT SPACE-TIME CHANGE AND DRIVING FACTORS RESEARCH OF VARIOUS CITIES IN SICHUAN PROVINCE FROM 2003 TO 2011

In this research we use water footprint theory and calculation method to systematically study the dynamic change and evaluate the benefits of agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province from 2003 to 2011, using the method of grey correlation to analysis the driving force factors. The results indicated that: (1) both the total and the average agricultural water footprint of Sichuan Province showed an increasing trend. Agriculture water footprint of Chengdu City, Nanchong City and DaZhou City is larger, which is 8.244×10⁹ m³, 4.556×10⁹ m³ and 4.102×10⁹ m³ in 2011. Per capita agricultural water footprint between different cities is not big, Chengdu City and Panzhihua City are higher. (2) The benefits of agricultural water resources show: the net trade of agricultural water footprint are positive in various cities in Sichuan Province, which is a typical water output region. In 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2011, agricultural water resources scarcity degree is higher, the highest shortage of water resources occurred in Chengdu City, which is more than 200% per year from 2005 to 2010. (3) The driving factors of agricultural water resources show that: multi-cropping index and population is the key factor to agricultural water footprint changes, the correlation coefficients are 0.643 3 and 0.632 5. We suggest to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources, appropriately control the scale of water production, rational allocation of water resources, and realize water space of coordination.