多层递阶方法在变化环境下非一致性水文序列分析中的应用

由于受人类活动、气候等外界变化环境的影响,用于水资源评价计算的天然年径流量序列失去了一致性。为了适应变化环境对水文预报的要求,提出了基于时变参数的非一致性年径流序列的多层递阶预报方法。该方法不同于传统带固定参数的模型,它是将预报对象看作为随机动态时变系统,首先进行动态系统的时变参数预报,进而在参数预报基础之上对系统状态预报,从而提高了预测结果的可靠性。以闽江竹岐水文站为例,进行年径流量的中长期预报,为区域水资源的优化管理提供科学的依据。

Application of Multi-level Recursive Method in Forecasting Inconsistent Annual Runoff Series under Changing Environment

Owing to the effects of changing environment,such as human activities and climate,the natural annual runoff series for water resources evaluation calculation lost their consistency.In order to adapt to a changing environment demand for inconsistent annual runoff forecast,multi-level recursive method is applied.Different from previous mathematical statistic method with fixed-parameters,the multi-level recursive method is the one just dealing with the time-space variation system.The dependability of forecasted results will be enhanced because the regime of runoff is forecasted based the time-varying parameters forecasted in the model.The paper will illustrate the method by taking Zhuqi station of Minjiang River as an example,and the results will provide scientific basis for planning water use in the future.