改进的产业碳关联系数及应用 ——以上海为例

投入产出分析中重要的影响力系数和感应度系数被引入到我国的产业环境关联研究中,但采用的计算方法却多是存在缺陷的传统公式,对指标的政策意义解读也有待深入.在梳理2项指标前沿发展的基础上,以部门最终产品构成系数为权数,改进了表征产业碳关联的碳影响力系数和碳影响诱导系数(代替原碳感应度系数)的计算公式,并指出前者主要对应产业政策,对部门划分水平较不敏感,而后者主要对应节能减排政策,对部门划分水平较敏感.将改进的指标应用于2010年上海市,结果表明,其产业政策应扶植服务业和先进制造业,鼓励重化工业和专用设备制造业转型,逐步淘汰多数传统中低端制造业,节能减排政策的重点实施部门则应扩大到部分高能耗服务业.

Improved indices of inter-sectorial carbon linkages and the application to shanghai case

Input-output analysis through power of dispersion index and sensitivity of dispersion index was widely applied in the research on linkages between industries and environment. However, traditional algorithms are questionable and the policy implication of those indices need further interpretation. Based on recent development on two indices, we improved the carbon power of dispersion index (CPI) and developed carbon induction of dispersion index (CII, replacing the existing carbon sensitivity of dispersion index) through supplementing the final product structure coefficients. CPI corresponds to industry policy and is not sensitive to sector classification whereas the CII corresponds to emission reduction policy and is highly sensitive sector classification. We apply these two improved indices to analyze the case of Shanghai based on 2010 data and generate industry policy suggestions: supporting services and advanced manufacturing, encouraging transformation of heavy industry and special equipment manufacturing industry, and phasing out of most traditional low-end manufacturing; and emission reduction policy suggestions: expanding the focus to some high energy-spending services.