基于情景分析的北京市机动车污染排放控制研究

为了研究未来北京市机动车排放控制措施的减排效果,本文基于情景分析法,以2010年为基准年,通过设置3类控制措施情景,估算2011~2020年不同情景下北京市机动车常规污染物排放量,并在基准情景基础上,估算污染物减排量,分析控制措施对不同类型机动车的减排贡献.结果表明,尽管未来北京市机动车保有量会有较大增长,实施机动车排放控制措施仍可取得显著的减排效果.单一措施中,淘汰高排放车减排量最大.其中,淘汰轻型客车可有效减少CO的排放,减排贡献率为89.4%;淘汰重型客车可对NOx、HC和PM10达到有效削减,其贡献率分别为65.5%、55.8%、93.4%.实施新的排放标准对重型柴油车的排放也有明显控制效果,且4种污染物都能得到有效削减.综合实施各种措施的效果最为显著,2020年对CO、NOx、HC、PM10的削减效果分别达到46.4%、42.1%、8.6%和50.6%.

Based on the scenario analysis of Beijing motor vehicle emission control research

Effect of vehicular emission control measures in future years (2011~2020) was assessed based on the scenario analysis in Beijing. The conventional pollutants emissions of motor vehicle in three kinds of control measures scenarios in future years have been estimated, which compared with the Business-as-usual (BAU)scenario to calculate the emission reduction. The results indicated that although the Beijing motor vehicle population would have a certain growth, emission control measures would get significant effect. The elimination of high-emission vehicles achieved the largest reduction in all of single measures. The light-duty vehicle elimination can effectively reduce CO emission, and the contribution rate was 89.4%; Similarly, the heavy-duty vehicle elimination can reduce NOx, HC and PM10effectively,and the contribution rate would reach 65.5%, 55.8% and 93.4% respectively. The implementation of new emission standard for heavy-diesel vehicle also had obvious effect, and the four kinds of pollutants can reduce effectively. The effect of the integrated scenario considering all the control measures was remarkable, the reducing rate of CO, NOx, HC, PM10 were 46.4%, 42.1%, 8.6% and 50.6% respectively.