| 基于GM（1,1）模型的秦皇岛市大气污染物SO2预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 代伟,曲东.基于GM（1,1）模型的秦皇岛市大气污染物SO2预测[J].中国环境管理干部学院学报,2011,21(1):55-57,91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 代伟 曲东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100;中国环境管理干部学院,河北秦皇岛066004
2. 西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌,712100 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据2004—2009年大气中SO2污染物的监测数据,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了未来6年秦皇岛市大气中SO2的变化趋势。结果显示,灰色系统GM(1,1)模型合理,精度较高,相对误差为-1.875%～1.228%,与环保部门公布的数据吻合程度较好。
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| 关 键 词： | SO2 GM(1 1)模型 变化趋势预测 大气污染物 |
Prediction of Air Pollutants SO2 in Qinhuangdao based on the GM (1,1)Model |
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| Dai Wei,Qu Dong.Prediction of Air Pollutants SO2 in Qinhuangdao based on the GM (1,1)Model[J].Journal of Environmental Management College of China,2011,21(1):55-57,91. |
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| Authors: | Dai Wei Qu Dong |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resource and Environment, Northwest A ＆F University, Yangling Shaanxi 712100; 2. Environmental Management College of China, Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004) |
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| Abstract: | According to the monitoring data of air pollutants SO2 in Qinhuangdao from 2004 to 2009, a variation trend of the ambient air quality of the next six years was forecast through GM （1,1） model with grey system to provide a basis for the air pollution control. Results of the theoretical prediction was quite in agreement with the observations with relative errors in the range -1.875%- 1.228%. |
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| Keywords: | SO2 GM （ 1 1 ） model variation trend forecasting air pollutants |
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