城市天然气管道半定量风险评估方法研究

以实现天然气管道风险评估资源的合理分配，确定天然气管道定量风险评估的重点为目标，改进燃气管道风险评估方法的肯特模型，探求城市天然气管道的半定量风险评估方法；分析了城市埋地天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的影响因子，并研究其评分标准；分别给出了城市天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的等级划分标准，并运用半定量风险矩阵进行燃气管道单元的风险初步排序，以确定高风险管道单元；对城市天然气管道进行半定量风险评估，可为识别管道沿线高风险后果区域、风险动态排序、风险预警及制定事故应急预案等提供科学依据和方法指导，具有重要的工程应用价值。

Study on semi-quantitative risk assessment method for urban natural gas pipeline

With the aim of achieving reasonable distribution for natural gas pipeline risk assessment resource, and confinning the emphases of quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipeline, the influence factors of fault frequency and consequence for underground urban natural gas pipeline are analyzed, and the grade rules are studied on. The grade compartmentalize rules of fault frequency and consequence for urban natural gas pipeline are given, and semi - quantitative risk matrix is applied to risk primary sort for gas pipeline unit, so as to find out the high risk pipeline unit. Semi - quantitative risk assessment for urban natural gas pipeline would provide scientific and basis guidance for identifying the high risk area around pipeline, risk dynamic sorting, risk beforehand alarm and establishing accident emergency counterplan, which have significant engineering application value.