| 几种事故预测方法的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 李耀林 韦光都. 几种事故预测方法的探讨[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 1993, 3(2): 43-46 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李耀林 韦光都 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安冶金建筑学院 副教授(李耀林)，西安冶金建筑学院 讲师(韦光都) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据生产单位事故发生的随机性特点,论证了未来时段中事故次数及其时间分布等各项指标,是能够用多种随机数学模型和灰色系统理论来预测的。用非随机的函数模型预測事故是不合适的。给出了几种事故预測方法,并提出了几种值得研究和试用的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 事故预测 随机性 灰色系统 保证率 |
THE RESEARCH OF THE METHODS FOR PREDICTING ACCIDENT |
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| Affiliation: | XI'an Inst. of Metall & COns. Eng |
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| Abstract: | This article, according to the accident random in a production unit, has proved that the number and time distribution of accidents at future intervals and other indexes can be predicted with a variety of stochastic mathematical model and grey system theory. This is not right to use non—stochastic function model to forecast accidents. The articale suggests several ways of accident prediction, and puts forward several methods that are worthy of study and utilization. |
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| Keywords: | Accident prediction Stochastic Grey system Assurance |
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