城镇煤气管道漏损分析与风险评价

在管道漏损的各种因素分析与分类的基础上,建立管道漏损综合评价模型,结合事故树法和专家评分法,实现对管道运行状况的评价。事故树模型采用最小割集的方法描述事故树相应的结构函数,从而评价事故树各底层事件的结构重要度。根据专家评分法,对危害因素指标和后果进行评分,实现管道工作状态的风险评价。该分析和评价方法,为实现基于风险评价的风险控制与管理提供理论依据。

Analysis and Risk Assessment of Gas Leakage from Pipelines in Urban Area

Based on the analysis and categories of insecure factors affecting gas pipelines leakage, a comprehensive assessment model for gas pipeline leakage is established by combining fault tree method and expert grading method. The fault tree model is described by a structure function expressed by minimal cuts, with which the structure importance of basic events can be evaluated. Then, the affecting factors and results are graded according to experts grading method, thus a risk assessment for gas pipeline leakage is achieved. This assessing method will provide theoretical basis for the control and safety management of gas pipeline leakage.