湖北省农田承灾力综合评价

由于目前的灾害预测，预报水平还很低，人们只有深入了解各承灾体的灾能力，对承灾体作出科学的分析和评价，才能有效地做到防灾，减灾。由于各地的经济条件及自然条件不同，农田承灾力也不大一样。

THE COMPREHENSIVE APPRAISAL OF FARMLAND CALAMITY BEARING CAPACITY IN HUBEI PROVINCE

Owing to the present very low level of calamity forecast,people can prevent and reduce natural calamity effectively only by making a thorough understanding of the calamity bearing capacity of various objects and giving a scientific analysis and appraisal.Because the economical and natural conditions in various area are different,the farmland calamity bearing capacity is not the same.Started with selecting evaluation factors,this paper established models,analyzed the bearing and defensive capabilities of different factors to natural calamity,the ability of production restoration,as well as the comparison of each evaluation factor,the weights of these factors were then determined.After that,synthetic indexes were calculated,grades were differentiated,and comprehensive access of divisions were accordingly made.It shows that evaluation and division of farmland calamity bearing is very useful to the rational adjustment of agricultural structure,and can provide scientific reference to government for decision making.