A review of quantitative risk assessment of onshore pipelines |
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| Institution: | 1. Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania;2. Vytautas Magnus University, Vileikos str. 8, LT-44404 Kaunas, Lithuania;3. Commissariat à l′Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives, DANS/DM2S/SERMA, CEA Saclay, Bât. 470, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France;1. College of Safety Engineering, Chongqing University of Science & Technology, Chongqing 401331, PR China;2. Department of Fire Protection & Safety, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, United States;3. Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada;1. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Materiali e Ambiente, “Sapienza” Università di Roma, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Roma, Italy;2. Centre for Technological Risk Studies (CERTEC), Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – BarcelonaTech (UPC), Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain;1. Departamento de Ingeniería Metalúrgica, ESIQIE, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Zacatenco, México D.F. 07738, Mexico;2. Universidad Autónoma de la Ciudad de México, Campus S.L. Tezonco, Iztapalapa, México D.F. 09790, Mexico;3. Facultad de Física, Universidad de La Habana, San Lázaro y L, Vedado, La Habana 10400, Cuba;4. Gerencia de Transporte y Distribución de Hidrocarburos, Pemex-PEP, Villahermosa, Tabasco 86038, Mexico |
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| Abstract: | This paper reviews and analyses frequency and consequences of failure of onshore pipelines transporting oil, refined products and natural gas. Generally accepted risk levels are indicated and a desirable risk range is proposed.Pipeline failure statistics from the United States (US), Canada, Europe and Brazil are compared. Failure rates for internal and external corrosion, human action and natural forces are analyzed and the expected failure rate for each failure mechanism is indicated. The effects of relevant construction and environmental factors on the failure frequency are studied and mean trends are obtained. Furthermore, the sizes of the holes indicated at different databases are compared and a typical distribution of failure sizes is proposed for each mode of failure. Finally, the frequency of ignition after a loss of containment is studied for gas and liquid pipelines.Historical data on consequences of the accidental loss of containment of onshore pipelines is reviewed. Property damage and environmental reparation costs are evaluated directly from pipeline failure data. Straightforward regression models are proposed to quantify these types of consequence taking into account the released fluid and the characteristics of the environment. Societal impact is evaluated by combining simple fire models, heat versus mortality correlations and population density.Finally, values for the desired risk level are evaluated by three methods: i) a risk value representing the good engineering practice; ii) the risk associated to the most relevant codes and regulations concerning pipeline risk assessment and/or construction and operation; iii) an analytically derived optimal risk level. The risk values obtained by the three methodologies are similar and a desirable risk range is proposed. |
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| Keywords: | Pipeline Quantitative risk assessment Consequences of failure Frequency of failure |
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