Investigation of multiple domino scenarios caused by fragments |
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| Institution: | 1. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Risk Assessment and Control on Chemical Process, School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237, China;2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban and Industrial Safety, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu, China;1. Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, Council of Labor Affairs, Taipei County, Taiwan;2. Department of Occupational Safety and Health, Jen—The Junior College of Medicine, Nursing and Management, Taiwan;3. Department of Power Vehicle and Systems Engineering, Chung Cheng Institute of Technology, National Defense University, Taiwan;1. School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Dalian University of Technology (DUT), NO-116024 Dalian, China;2. Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;1. Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis, School of Science, Aalto University, Helsinki, Finland;2. Department of Military Technology, Finnish National Defence University, Helsinki, Finland |
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| Abstract: | A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10?7, 10?11, 10?15, and 10?19. These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 104 times that of the following domino effect. |
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| Keywords: | Risk assessment Multiple domino scenarios Industrial explosion Fragments |
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