Muhlbauer风险分析法在管道风险评价中的应用

将管道统计数据和专家意见相结合,以靖边-银川天然气输送管道工程为实例,进行管道安全模拟计算,定量分析输油、气管道的相对风险数,寻求提高管道运行安全性的途径.结果表明:该管道的两段管道,即靖边-盐池清、盐池清-银川的相对风险数分别为67.1和68.3,存在一定的风险,相对风险数中可变因素所占比例分别为63%和62%;可通过加强管理等措施,提高可变因素的指数分值从而提高管道的相对风险数,使管道安全性在原基础上提高19%左右. 

Application of Muhlbauer Risk Assessment Method in Pipeline Risk Assessment

Through combining the pipeline statistical date with the expert opinion and taking Jingbian-Yinchuan natural gas transport plumbing as an example,the pipeline safe analog computation was carried out and a quantitative analysis of the relative risk scores of the pipeline made to seek a way to enhance the pipeline safety.The results showed that the relative risk score of two sections of the pipeline was 67.1(Jingbian_Yanchiqing) and 68.3(Yanchiqing-Yinchuan),respectively.The plumbing had certain risk,and the variable factors accounted for 63% and 62% of the relative risk scores respectively for the two sections.The safety of pipeline could rise by 19%,through strengthening management and enhancing the score fractions of variable factors.