基于折衷权重的多层次安全性评价方法研究

权重值的确定是安全性评价中非常重要的环节,其准确与否直接决定了评价结果的是否能达到预期目的。为了解决在多层次评价体系中间层和顶层权重无法由熵值法直接求得的不便并保证评价结果的合理性,尝试将基于熵的TOPSIS安全评价方法进行改进,首先将主观评价意见定量化,根据量化结果利用层次分析法求取各因素的主观权重,然后利用信息熵值得到客观权重,最后将二者进行折衷处理,在客观熵权基础上融入主观意见,并引入综合指数的概念来协助计算多层次评价体系中间层和顶层客观权重,通过实例应用,所建立的评价模型计算结果与目前广泛采用的模糊综合评比结果基本一致,解决了多层次评价结构中权重值不易获得的问题。这对于具有多层次体系的安全评价方法不失为一种发展思路。

Study on multi-level safety evaluation method based on compromise weight

To determine the value of weight is an extremely important factor in safety analysis because its accuracy always determine if the analysis results can be up to expectation directly. With respect to such problem as the weight of middle layer and top layer can in no way be worked out by entropy method,and the intention to ensure the rationality of analysis results,the safety analysis method which is based on entropy weight was improved. First,the subjective evaluation views,after that,use the PHA was to obtain the subjective weight of each factor. Second,the objective weight was calculated by information entropy method. Finally,the concept of composite index was introduced,which can help to seek the objective weight in each layer. The research procedure integrated the subjective view in an objective entropy weight by compromising the two kinds of weight. By way of example application verification,the calculated result of the established model conformed basically to the result of fuzzy comprehensive assessment method which is used extensively in the field. As a result,the analysis correctness was ensured. In addition,the problem of weight obtained in the multi-level analysis construction was solved. This model can in fact account for a development idea for safety analysis method of multi-level system.