滑坡破坏概率分析及其在浙江张村滑坡中的应用

综述了滑坡破坏概率的基本原理和实施方法，由于影响滑坡稳定性的因素的复杂性和随机性，将概率统计的理论运用在剩余推力法上，推导了滑坡破坏概率的模型，用Monte-Carlo法来模拟随机变量的分布。以浙江张村滑坡为例，该滑坡正处于蠕滑阶段。敏感性分析表明地下水位的变化对滑坡破坏概率影响很大。因此模拟和监测滑坡位移和地下水位的变化必须立即进行，相应的防治措施必须考虑。

Probability Analysis of Slope Failures and Its application for Zhangcun Landslide,Zhejiang Province

This paper summarizes the principle of failure probability of landslide. Due to complexity and randomness of the factors which affect landslide's stability, this paper uses statistical method and probability analysis to establish the model of failure probability of landslide on the base of the unbalanced driving-force method. The Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the distribution of the random variables. A case study shows that Zhangcun landslide is creeping. Sensitivity analysis shows that the changes of groundwater level affect the failure probability of landslide greatly. Therefore monitoring and simulating the displacement of landslide and the groundwater level should be done as soon as possible, and proper remediation measures must be taken into consideration.