资源区域流动的驱动因子分析与流动潜力测度——以晋煤输出为例

论文采用国家铁路省际间煤炭资源的交流数据、动力煤价格数据,以全国最大的煤炭输出省--山西为例,运用回归分析等统计方法,分析了资源区域流动的驱动因子。基于场论,提出了测度资源区域流动潜力的方法。主要结论有:①资源区域流动的主要驱动因子有距离、价格差;②在显著性水平α=0.05下,区域煤炭价格差与晋煤净输流量呈正向变化,但线性无关,源汇间距离与晋煤净输流量呈线性负相关;③2005年晋煤净输流量与源汇间距离符合F=e^9.091-0.003D的Growth回归模型;④资源势差涵盖了影响煤炭流动的流量和距离等2个主要因子,是测度资源流动潜力的一种有效方法。

Driving Forces of Resource Flow among Regions and Measurement of Resource Flow Potential-Taking Coal Flow from Shanxi to Other Provinces as a Case

With data of coal flux among different provinces by national railway and price of steam coal in China in 2005, taking the largest coal exporter—Shanxi province as an example, with statistic methods such as correlation and regression analysis, the driving forces of resource flow are analyzed. Based on conception of field theory including resource field, resource potential etc., a method for measuring the potential of resource flow among regions is presented. The conclusions lie in:1) distance and price difference between source and sink of coal flow are the two leading driving factors of coal flow among regions.2) The greater the price difference between source and sink is, the greater resource flux occurs, while the relationship of distance and flux is the opposite.However, at the significant level of 0.05, there isn't linear correlation between price difference and resource flux; while distance and resource flux from source to sinks assumes inverse linear correlation, and spatial assignment of resource flux in resource outflow field complies with the law of distance decay. 3) There is a regression function such as F=e^9.091-0.003D between the net flux and the distance from Shanxi province to other provinces. 4) For resources potential difference has covered the two main factors—distance and flux of coal flow, the potential difference is a useful tool for measuring the potential of resources flow.