基于改进突变级数法的金属矿采空区稳定性评价

为了有效、科学地对金属矿采空区的稳定性进行评价，提出基于改进突变级数法的采空区稳定性分析模型。根据改进突变级数法，对影响采空区稳定的9个因素进行多层次分解，并运用主成分分析法确定各层指标的相对重要性，以获得采空区稳定性评价指标体系。为得到最后的评价结果，对数据进行归一化处理，并结合突变理论与模糊数学理论，进行综合量化运算。利用搜集的26组地下金属矿采空区数据，对该评价模型进行训练和检验。研究表明，该评价模型既有效地避免了直接使用难于确定的“权重”概念，又客观地确定了各层指标的相对重要性，其判别结果比较符合实际，为金属矿采空区稳定性评价提供了一种新方法。

Stability evaluation of metal mine goaf based on improved catastrophe progression method

In order to evaluate the goaf stability of metal mines effectively and scientifically , based on the improved catastrophe progression method , an integrative identification model for the stability classification of goaf was presen-ted.Nine control factors were selected in the analysis of multi-level objective decomposition ,and their relative im-portance were determined by analyzing measured data using principal component analysis method .According to the catastrophe theory and the fuzzy member function , the data were normalized and the catastrophic affiliated function-al value was calculated , then a catastrophe progression model was obtained to classify the stability classification of goaf .26 typical goaf cases of metal mines were collected to train and test the improved catastrophe progression mod -el.The results showed that the identification model both effectively avoids the direct use of the “weight” concept which is difficult to determine , and objectively determines the relative importance of each layer indicators .It has excellent performance and high prediction accuracy , and can be used to evaluate the stability of metal mine goaf .