热带气旋影响下的电网应急案例框架构建研究

在我国电网防灾抗灾体系中，因风灾等自然灾害影响具有持续性，造成应急准备阶段对灾害演变过程认知不足而引发响应阶段抢修故障。热带气旋是导致电网破坏严重的自然灾害之一，近些年发生率高于以往同期。风灾是阶段变化的，情景又是动态演变的。针对热带气旋的影响，考虑其不同影响阶段构建应急案例，可在应急响应行动过程，有效准确的面对风灾特性而带来的抢修故障。提出电网风灾的案例框架构建方法，并结合风灾的特点进行框架分类，可有效应对灾害的不确定性从而增加案例可用度。同时对风灾案例库建设、抗台演习演练与实际应对三种目的下的案例进行属性约简，依热带气旋演变，将案例个体拆分化采取逐步多次检索生成可行预案，从而提高响应效率。

Research on case framework construction of power grid emergency caused by tropical cyclone

In China, power grid network needs more impeccable disaster prevention and resilience system. As nat- ural disaster like tropical cyclone takes on the feature of persistence, disaster evolution cognitive deficiency can changes in phase and the scene shifts dynamically. In view of this, constructing emergency case in different phases can be used to cope with repair problem when facing the influence of tropical cyclone. In this paper, according to the features of wind disaster, the case framework was proposed which can deal with the uncertainty of disaster effec- tively and improve the degree of case availability. Depending on different objectives such as case base construction, simulation drill and disaster response, the corresponding results of attributes reduction were illustrated. Feasible plan can be generated by adopting phasic retrieve with splitting each case into pieces according to the evolution of tropical cyclone. This new method has ability to enhance response efficiency with response plan.