| Abstract: | A composite model for the risk assessment is developed for the shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive waste. The composite model is composed of a source term, repository failure model, geosphere model, biosphere model, and finally, a dose-and-health-effects model. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are also carried out. In addition to the time-dependent annual release rate and dose rate for each nuclide, the ultimate risk in terms of cancer death rate is estimated.The results show that the highest value of the annual dose for the repository is less than the individual dose limit to the human body, and the calculated highest cancer death rate is much lower than other various risks. The highest value of the total annual dose appears at about 100 years after disposal, and at this time, dominant nuclides are Ni-63 and Cs-137.From the results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, it is found that the uncertainty associated with the public risk is strongly sensitive to the volume flow rate and irrigation rate of surface water and the retardation coefficient of geological structure.It is concluded that the methodology of simplified mathematical modeling for the risk assessment can be an effective tool for the decision making of the radioactive waste repository selection and the management of the repository system. |
