Mapping probability of fire occurrence in San Jacinto Mountains,California, USA |
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Authors: | Yue Hong Chou Richard A Minnich Richard A Chase |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, 92521 Riverside, California, USA;(2) Forest Fire Research Laboratory, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 92507 Riverside, California, USA |
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Abstract: | An ecological data base for the San Jacinto Mountains, California, USA, was used to construct a probability model of wildland
fire occurrence. The model incorporates both environmental and human factors, including vegetation, temperature, precipitation,
human structures, and transportation. Spatial autocorrelation was examined for both fire activity and vegetation to determine
the specification of neighborhood effects in the model. Parameters were estimated using stepwise logistic regressions. Among
the explanatory variables, the variable that represents the neighborhood effects of spatial processes is shown to be of great
importance in the distribution of wildland fires. An important implication of this result is that the management of wildland
fires must take into consideration neighborhood effects in addition to environmental and human factors. The distribution of
fire occurrence probability is more accurately mapped when the model incorporates the spatial term of neighborhood effects.
The map of fire occurrence probability is useful for designing large-scale management strategies of wildfire prevention. |
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Keywords: | Wildland fire management Southern California fires |
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