基于SD模型的城市生活垃圾资源化处理模拟研究——以大连市为例

改革开放以来，城市化不断发展，人民生活水平快速提高，生活垃圾产生量迅速增多，垃圾污染已严重影响城市生态文明的建设。以大连市为例，运用系统动力学方法建立了城市生活垃圾资源化处理的系统动力学仿真模型，并进行情景分析。对大连市各种垃圾处理方式的处理量进行了预测，并预测了2种不同方案下大连市垃圾填埋场的容量和使用寿命，针对垃圾焚烧模块进行了发电量的预测。研究结果表明：大连市毛茔子垃圾填埋场四期到2016年底达到饱和，要提高垃圾焚烧的投入，大力建设垃圾焚烧厂，将垃圾焚烧发电作为最主要的资源化处理方式。

Simulation of Municipal Solid Waste Resource Recovery Based on System Dynamics Model: The Case of Dalian

Since the beginning of reform and opening in 1978, with the development of urbanization and the improvement of people's living level, the municipal solid waste (MSW) generation has increased rapidly in China, which has seriously affected the construction of ecological civilization in the cities. With Dalian city as an example, the system dynamics method was used to establish the system dynamic simulation model for MSW resource recovery, and the scenarios analysis was accordingly performed. The treatment amounts of various methods, the volumes and life of MSW landfill sites in Dalian city under two different schemes, and the power generation by MSW incineration were projected. The results show that the fourth phase of Maoyingzi MSW Landfill in Dalian will be filled by the end of 2016. Therefore, it is imperative to put waste incineration and power generation as the main way of resource recovery, by increasing investment in waste incineration and constructing more MSW incinerators.