安全疏散中人群拥挤踩踏现象的理论和模拟分析

为研究出口宽度对人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的影响程度,以某礼堂为例,建立基于排队论的安全疏散模型,理论分析并数值模拟了出口宽度为2m和4m对人员疏散的影响。研究表明,在发生火灾进行人员安全疏散过程中,当平均服务率大于等于平均到达率时,人群疏散有序,疏散效率较高;然而当平均服务率小于平均到达率时,使得人流不畅,出口过于拥堵。并且理论计算和数值模拟获得的选取适当出口宽度结果一致。对于大型场馆的出口设计具有一定的参考价值。

The Theory Analysis and Numerical Simulation on Crowd Stampede Phenomenon in Safe Evacuation

In order to study the effect of exit width on the occurred crowd stampede accident,the effect of 2 m and 4 m exit width in personnel safe evacuation in a auditorium is theoretically analyzed and numerically simulated.Based on queuing theory,unique safe evacuation model is established.The result shows that when the average service rate is not less than average arrival rate in safe evacuation,evacuation is ordered and more efficient.When the average service rate is less than average arrival rate in safe evacuation,it makes the personnel flow disordered and exit is more plugged.Selecting the appropriate exit width by theoretical calculation is basically same as the result by numerical simulation.It provides some references for the design of exit width of the large venue.