长沙市两种空气质量预报方法检验对比

为探索新的空气质量预报方法，提高预报准确率，采用统计和对比方法，分析了长沙市空气质量现状，介绍了天气形势相似及动态逐步回归两种空气质量统计预报方法，并对其一年多的运行结果进行了检验和对比。结果表明，长沙市空气污染主要由PM\-\{10\}和SO\-2浓度超标引起, 且具有明显的空间分布特征;5年来长沙城市空气质量明显好转;两种预报方法对各污染物都有一定的预报能力，预报的误差绝对值多集中在30以内，而级别误差基本上在1级以内。两种方法对NO\-2的预报准确率均在98%左右,预报效果优良。绝对误差对比发现，两种预报方法对SO\-2的预报明显优于PM\-\{10\}预报；级别准确率对比时，两种预报方法对3种污染物的预报准确率相近。两种预报方法对3个污染因子的预报准确率呈现出NO\-2优于SO\-2优于PM\-\{10\}的趋势。

COMPARISON OF TWO AIR QUALITY FORECASTING METHODS FOR THE CITY OF CHANGSHA

On the basis of air quality research for the last five years in the city of Changsha,two air quality statistical forecasting methods were presented in details in this paper,and verification of the two methods was conducted for more than one year. It was revealed that air pollution in Changsha was mainly caused by PM10 and SO2,which exceeded the official permission value. The air pollution showed some degree of spatial distribution. However,changes in the air quality showed a trend towards a better situation over the last five years. The two methods can be used to determinate the forecasting ability for various contaminations. The results showed that the two methods have an accuracy of about 98% for the forecast of NO2 ;the methods have an obvious effect than the PM10 forecast for the forecast of SO2 ;and the two methods have similar forecasting results for the three kinds of contaminations. It was indicated that for the two air quality forecasting methods,the forecasting accuracy of NO2 is superior to that of SO2 ,and the forecasting accuracy of SO2 is superior to that of PM10.