基于集成法的道路交通安全评价

为了对道路交通安全进行较为客观的定量评价,将一种新的集成评价方法运用到评价中.该方法是包括德尔斐法、层次分析法、灰色聚类法、模糊评判、矩阵方法等一系列方法的综合应用.在该方法中,德尔斐法被用于建立道路交通安全的评价指标体系,层次分析法被用来确定各评价指标间的权重,灰色聚类法被用来对专家评分进行处理,模糊评判以及矩阵方法被用在整个运算过程中.不同的理论有不同的适用性,在道路交通安全评价中的不同阶段使用不同的理论,就能获得一个直观的评价结果.最后用一个算例说明了整个思路,并证明了该法是有效可行的,且有对历史样本数据无依赖、简单直观等优点.

Highway traffic safety assessment by using a comprehensive method

The paper aims to introduce the authors' research on Comprehensive Method for assessing the highway traffic safety.In order to solve the problem of the current weaknesses in current evaluation on highway traffic safety,such as lack of quantitative and total evaluation,this paper has put forward a new comprehensive assessment-the Comprehensive Method.When using the new method we have put forward,what we have to have to is to combine Delphi,Analytic Hierarch Process,Grey Clustering,matrix and the related methods in an integrate way.The actual procedure is: Delphi is used to establish the evaluation index of traffic safety while Analytic Hierarch Process is used to ascertain the combined weight of the whole evaluation index.At the same time,Grey theory is used to deal with the mark by the experts for traffic safety assessment for some roadways.Matrix as well as the other else theories can be also used to operate the traffic safety assessment.Since the advantages and disadvantages of each theory are comparatively and complementary,different theories can be used at various steps in the comprehensive post evaluation.And,finally,we can attain intuitionist results.To demonstrate the actual procedure of the method use,a typical example is provided at the end of the paper.In addition,some merits are shown to prove the advantages further.