Prediction of occupational accident statistics and work time loss distributions using Bayesian analysis |
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| Authors: | Eftychia C Marcoulaki Ioannis A Papazoglou Myrto Konstandinidou |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Medicine, Internal Medicine, CHUV and Faculty of Biology and Medicine, Lausanne, Switzerland;2. Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (IUMSP), CHUV and Faculty of Biology and Medicine, Lausanne, Switzerland;1. Department of Medical Humanities, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Str 6.131, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands;2. Department of Medical Genetics, University Medical Center Utrecht, KC04.084.2, PO Box 85090, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands;1. Institute for Biomedical Problems (IBMP) of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia;2. Klinikum der Universität München (KUM), Munich, Germany;3. Airbus Defence and Space GmbH (ADS), Friedrichshafen, Germany;4. German Aerospace Center (DLR), Bonn, Germany;1. Hôpital Sud, CHU de Rennes, 16, boulevard de Bulgarie, 35200 Rennes, France;2. CH Yves-Le-Foll, 10, rue Marcel-Proust, 22000 Saint-Brieuc, France;3. Lactalis Nutrition Santé, Parc d’activités secteur Est, 35370 Torcé, France;4. Lactalis Recherche et Développement, 8, Fromy, 35240 Retiers, France;1. Aix Marseille université, AP–HM, IFSTTAR, LBA, hôpital de la Conception, service de chirurgie maxillo-faciale, 13005 Marseille, France;2. Aix Marseille université, IFSTTAR, LBA, 13005 Marseille, France;3. Aix Marseille université, AP–HM, CNRS, EFS, hôpital de la Conception, service de chirurgie maxillo-faciale, 13005 Marseille, France |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses Bayesian analysis tools for the stochastic evaluation of work time losses due to occupational accidents in a workplace. Models are developed for accident frequencies, duration of recovery from an accident, and the worker unavailability. The unavailability statistics are hereby derived considering a two state stochastic model, to provide estimates for the expected work time losses over a base period of workplace operation. The above models are applied on real multiyear accident data collected from the Greek Petrochemical Industry. |
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