饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析

根据常规事故树定量计算中基本事件概率的不确定性问题,通过引入模糊集的概念,将常规事故树中基本事件的发生概率模糊化,用三角形模糊数代替确定性发生概率,应用模糊数截集方法,推导了模糊事故树的相关算法.采用模糊事故树方法得到饮食业油烟道火灾事故发生概率,并进行了敏感性分析,找出对顶事件发生概率影响较大的基本事件,确认减小油烟道火灾事故发生的相关措施.研究表明,饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析是切实可行的,有助于对饮食业油烟道火灾的认识、预防和扑救工作.

Application of Fault Tree Analysis Based on Fuzzy Sets in Cooking Fume Tunnel Fire Accident

As you know,there exists uncertainty and imprecision of each basic event in traditional fault tree analysis,so the fuzzy set theory is applied to deal with this kind of phenomenon.A triangular fuzzy number is introduced to represent the failure probability of a basic event.Fuzzy fault tree algorithm is developed by the cut method.The probability of cooking fume tunnel fire accident is calculated by a fuzzy fault tree.Main basic events affecting the occurrence probability of the top event are verified by a s...