SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant,Acacia nilotica |
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| Institution: | 1. CSIRO Entomology and CRC for Australian Weed Management, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;2. University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia;3. USDA/NRCS Jornada Range, Las Cruces, NM, USA;4. CSIRO Entomology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia;5. Davies Laboratories, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, PO Aitkenvale, Qld 4814, Australia;1. Center for Clinical Laboratory, Xiamen University Affiliated Zhongshan Hospital, Xiamen, China;2. Department of Hospital Epidemiology and Infection Control, Xiamen University Affiliated Zhongshan Hospital, Xiamen, China;1. Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4;2. Applied Mammal Research Institute, 11010 Mitchell Ave., Summerland, British Columbia, Canada V0H 1Z8;1. Junior Research Group for Microbial Biotechnology, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universitätsstraße 150, 44780 Bochum, Germany;2. Centre for Biotechnology, University of Bielefeld, 33615 Bielefeld, Germany;3. Chair of Plant Physiology, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universitätsstraße 150, 44780 Bochum, Germany;4. Marine Natural Products Lab, University of Prince Edward Island, 550 University Avenue, Charlottetown, PEI, Canada;5. Chair of Industrial Biocatalysis, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstraße 4, 85748 Garching, Germany;1. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia;2. School of Agricultural, Computational & Environmental Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia;1. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, 569 Dabney Hall, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA;2. Florida Natural Areas Inventory, 1018 Thomasville Road, Suite 200-C, Tallahassee, FL 32303, USA;1. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1, Canada;2. Department of Medicine, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1, Canada |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). |
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