Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds |
| |
Authors: | Kyle G. Horton Benjamin M. Van Doren Heidi J. Albers Andrew Farnsworth Daniel Sheldon |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA;2. Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;3. Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA;4. Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA;5. College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures. |
| |
Keywords: | aeroecology bird migration light pollution radar remote sensing aeroecología contaminación lumínica migración de aves radar telemetría 飞行生态学 鸟类迁徙 光污染 雷达 遥感 |
|
|