我国城市O3污染的数值预报试验研究

为在我国开展城市O₃污染预报,新近发展了一个O₃污染数值预报模式系统.它由物理、生态过程模式(包括污染源模型,下垫面参数化模型,中尺度-α气象模式,中尺度-β气象模式,湍流统计量参数化模式和干湿沉积模式)和高分辨O₃化学模式(HROM)组成.用该系统对重庆、广州和济南市的O₃污染作了24 h实际预报试验,结果表明:预报与实测O₃质量浓度之间有相当好的一致性,API指数平均预报准确率超过85%;城市O₃质量浓度表现出明显的日变化、空间分布的非均匀性和地区差异;NO₂是O₃的一个重要前体污染物,它们之间呈好的负相关. 

Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban O3 Pollution in China

In order to make forecast for urban O₃ pollution in China,a numerical forecasting model system on O₃ pollution is developed recently.The system consists of models on physical and biological processes (including pollution source model,parameterization model on underlying surface,meso-α meteorological model,meso-β meteorological model,parameterization model on turbulent statistics,and dry and wet deposition model) and high resolution O₃ chemical model (HROM).The system was used to do O₃ practical forecasting experiment for 24 h in Chongqing,Guangzhou and Jinan cities.The results showed that there is good consistency between forecasted and measured O₃ mass concentrations and the average forecasting accuracy of API can exceed 85%;there are obvious diurnal variation,heterogeneity of spatial distributions,and regional difference for urban O₃ mass concentrations;NO₂ is an important precursory pollutant of O₃,and there is a negative correlation well between NO₂ and O₃.