基于LMDI和M-R分解模型的长江经济带碳排放驱动效应研究

在测算2000-2016年长江经济带碳排放的基础上,从时间和空间两个维度分别运用LMDI和M-R分解模型分析碳排放差异的驱动效应。研究结果表明,2000-2016年长江经济带碳排放总体呈逐渐上升趋势,其中第二产业产生的碳排放大幅高于其他3个产业部门,江苏、浙江等省份的碳排放相对较高且增长幅度较大,江西、贵州等省份碳排放较小。经济产出和人口规模分别是拉动碳排放增长的主次因素,能源强度则是抑制碳排放增长最主要的因素,能源结构和产业结构也起到一定的抑制作用。2016年各省份碳排放与平均水平之间存在明显的差异,且绝大多数省份碳排放驱动效应的差异来源于第二产业。提高第二产业能源利用效率,实现产业升级,转移经济资产和人口是缓解长江经济带碳排放增长和缩小碳排放空间差异的关键途径。

Study on carbon emission driving effect in Yangtze River Economic Belt based on LMDI and M-R decomposition models

Based on the calculation of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2016,LMDI and M-R decomposition models were used to analyze the driving effects of carbon emissions differences from two dimensions of time and space.The results showed that the carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a gradual upward trend,the carbon emissions of the second industry were significantly higher than other three industries.The carbon emissions of Jiangsu,Zhejiang were relatively high and the growth rate was relatively large,while those of Jiangxi,Guizhou and so on were relatively small from 2000 to 2016.Economic output and population size were the primary and secondary factors to promote the growth of carbon emissions,while energy intensity was the most important factor to restrain the growth of carbon emissions,energy structure and industrial structure also played a certain inhibitory role.There were obvious differences between provincial carbon emissions and average levels in2016,and most of the provincial differences in the driving effect of carbon emissions came from the secondary industry.Improving the energy efficiency of the secondary industry,upgrading the industry,transferring economic assets and population were the key ways to alleviate the growth of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and narrow the spatial differences of carbon emissions.