| 中国工业固体废物产生量的预测及对策研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 林艺芸,张江山,刘常青.中国工业固体废物产生量的预测及对策研究[J].环境科学与管理,2008,33(7):47-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林艺芸 张江山 刘常青 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]福建师范大学环境科学研究所,福建福州350007; [2]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007 |
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| 摘 要： | 以中国近几年来工业固体废物的产生量的统计数据为基础,应用灰色模型理论,建立工业固体废物产生量的GM（1,1）预测模型,预测到2015年中国工业固体废物产生量将达到3.3×10^9t;通过影响因素关联度分析,对工业固体废物产生量影响较大的因素是GDP,若是将GDP因素的影响考虑在内,到2015产生量将达到6.1×10^9t。预测结果表明今后中国工业固体废物增加速度很快,从而为环境管理提供了科学的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 工业固体废弃物 产生量 GM模型 对策 |
Generation Prediction and Countermeasure of Industrial solid waste in China |
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| Lin Yiyun,Zhang Jiangshan,Liu Changqing.Generation Prediction and Countermeasure of Industrial solid waste in China[J].Environmental Science and Management,2008,33(7):47-50. |
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| Authors: | Lin Yiyun Zhang Jiangshan Liu Changqing |
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| Institution: | Lin Yiyun, Zhang Jiangshan, Liu Changqing ( 1. Graduate School of Environmental Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China; 2. School of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistics of industrial solid wastes generation in recent years in China, it predicted that the total quantity of industrial solid wastes would be 3.3 ×10^9 t in 2015 by establishment of GM （ 1,1 ） forecast model; and grey relation analysis （GRA） method was used to analysis influence fators, the results indicated that GDP had max correlation degree to industrial solid wastes generation. In that case, it would reach 6. 1 ×10^9 t if considering the factor of GDP. The result showed that the quantity of industrial solid wastes would increase rapidly in China, which provided scientific basis for environment management. |
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| Keywords: | industrial solid wastes production GM （grey model） countermeasure |
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