全球高致病性禽流感灾害的时空变异

利用多种资源建立了全球高致病性禽流感灾害数据库,基于ArcGIS的空间分析和统计模块,对全球高致病性禽流感灾害的时空变异进行分析。结果表明:2003年以来全球高致病性禽流感爆发有三个流行高峰期,正好在2004和2005年的冬季;全球高致病性禽流感爆发的频率在最近几年里呈不断上升的趋势,地理空间范围不断扩散;高致病性禽流感的爆发在时间和空间上表现得更加集中。全球高致病性禽流感分布的总体特征表明在家禽密度高的区域,邻近家禽生产地的湖泊和水库附近,或者鸟类迁徒路线的交叉处,特别是那些重叠的区域可能是高致病性禽流感的多发地区。上述结果可为高致病性禽流感灾害的防控提供借鉴和依据。

The Temporal-Spatial Variability Analysis of the Global Avian Influenza Disaster

The temporal-spatial variability of global avian influenza disaster is assessed from geographical and disaster perspectives in a GIS environment.The results show that,since 2003,there have been three peak(outbreaks) of avian influenza in the world.They occurred in winter of 2004 and 2005.In the recent years,the(global) avian influenza is of an increasing tendency.It extends geographically.H5N1HPAI outbreaks became(clustered) both geographically and in time.The general characters of global avian influenza distribution show that(avian) influenza disasters are frequent in the high poultry density areas,reservoirs and lakes close to poultry(production) areas,or the crossroads of bird migration flyways,particularly those overlapping areas.