A method for prediction of extent of microbial pollution of seawater and carrying capacity of beaches

The increase in the number of tourists visiting a coast is desired by most of the countries for economic reasons. However, this increase in tourism may cause pollution of the sea. This can be only avoided by proper planning and by predicting the carrying capacity of the coast in terms of sea pollution. This is especially important for developing countries where part of the wastewater is discharged without any treatment into the sea.In the present study the beaches were classified according to their use — and consequently the amount of waste discharged into the sea — into four groups: (1) coasts that are used only for swimming and recreational purposes; (2) coasts used simultaneously for dwelling, swimming, and recreational purposes; (3) coasts along which only dwellings exist; and (4) natural and man-made harbors, i.e., coasts used as shelters. During the survey,40,320 observations were made between December 1985 and February 1988 to determine the effect of the number of tourists on seawater quality. The results obtained were analyzed by a multilinear regression program to obtain an empirical equation giving the extent of the sea pollution in terms of coliform concentration as a function of population density and some other environmental factors.The equations derived in this study enable the determination of the carrying capacity of a beach in terms of pollution as well as the expected degree of pollution corresponding to a given population density. Furthermore, it allows the prediction of the extra carrying capacity that can be obtained by improving the waste-disposal conditions.