系统安全中人的可靠性研究的理论问题分析

人的可靠性分析最早可追溯到20世纪50年代,美国国家实验室开展的一项人的差错概率度量的工作标志着人的差错及其可靠性分析这一新领域的诞生。随后几十年里,一些研究成果得到了不同程度的应用。由于适用面窄、预测精度低等原因使得人的可靠性分析方法可信度不高。究其原因,笔者认为是数据来源、独立性的干扰、人的自我纠正能力以及人机系统的整合等问题,它们成了制约其应用和发展的关键因素。通过对上述几个问题的理论性探讨,指出其对人的可靠性预测与评估所产生的影响,并对该学科的发展提出了几点建议,希望能借此为人的可靠性研究提供参考点,从而理清思路使得人的可靠性研究取得突破。

Analysis on Theoretical Issues in Study of Human Reliability in System Safety

The analysis of human reliability originated from 1950'. The research on human- error probability done by the US National Lab marked the origin of th is research field. In later decades, some achievements have been applied to many fields. However, due to its narrow applicability and low precision in predicati on, the convincingness is rather low. The main reasons came from the data source , interference in independency, and ability of self-correction and coupling of h uman-machine, all these became the key factors restricting its development and a pplication. After theoretically probed into above-mentioned issues, the impact r esulted in predication and evaluation of human reliability was pointed out, and some suggestions were made for the development of this discipline. Hoping that this would be taken as references in the research of human reliability, and made clear in people's thought to promote the breakthrough in its research.