Modelling visitor groups' intentions to displace from an urban trail: a combined stated preference and video monitoring approach

Depending on gender and activity, overcrowding and safety concerns may detract from urban green space use. Differences in use displacement intentions from a recreational trail in a forest in Vienna were investigated for male and female walkers as well as male and female dog-walkers (N = 425) using an image-based stated preference model. The trail scenarios were depicted as digitally calibrated images that systematically displayed combinations of levels of crowding with different mixes of user types and visitor behaviour. Visitors were asked whether the presented recreation scenario was so unacceptable that they would shift their use away from the presented trail. Hours and days of stated non-use of the recreation trail by various user groups are estimated by integrating the results of the behavioural model with annual visitation data. Use displacement intentions differed by gender and activity. High use levels were a greater concern for all respondents than very low use levels, particularly for female dog-walkers. However, only a small proportion of the recorded hours were heavily used. Safety concerns about very low use levels reduced the potential times of forest use for female walkers without a dog.