Analyses on phenological and morphological variations of mangrove forests along the southwest coast of Bangladesh

Drastic changes in river discharge and salinity levels are threatening the phenology and morphology of the coastal mangrove forests of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh. We have used AVHRR GIMMS (1985–2006) and MODIS (2005–2010) satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to identify the temporal variation of the phenology of the mangroves. Linear interpolation and Fourier-based adjustment were applied to remove noise from the NDVI time series. Then linear regression analysis on a single area (8 km ? 8 km) and a composite of 36 areas for three NDVI statistics the annual minimum, annual average, and annual maximum were performed--over the time periods 1985–1990, 1990–2000, 2000–2006 and 2005–2010 to identify possible functional changes in NDVI time series around the Sundarbans. Furthermore, we used fourteen LANDSAT images spanning the period 1989–2010 to estimate the spatiotemporal rate of shoreline changes over the three time periods 1989–2000, 2000–2006, and 2006–2010. A decreasing trend in the annual minimum NDVI was observed in most of the areas of the Sundarbans for the period 1990–2000. During the years 2000–2006, the trends of the three NDVI statistics became significantly positive, indicating an improvement of the mangrove phenology. In the period 2005–2010, a decreasing trend in all the NDVI variables was again dominant. The coast underwent rapid erosion from 1989–2000 and 2006–2010. However, the rate substantially declined between 2000 and 2006, when accretion was dominant. The advent of the upstream Farakka barrage caused a significant reduction in the Ganges-Gorai River discharge and increased the salinity in and around the Sundarbans. Our study concludes that this may be responsible for the degradation of mangrove phenology and accelerated erosion in the earlier and recent periods. In the interim, 2000–2006, improved river discharge and salinity levels due to the Ganges water sharing agreement (1996) and dredging of the Gorai River bed (1998–1999) enhanced the mangrove phenology and helped the coast to gain land.